A method of assessing the combat capability of the army and the chances of victory in the war
Mr. President!
Generals!
Officers!
Dear ladies and gentlemen!
This article is a continuation of the analytical materials on the assessment of the Russian Federation's attempt at the Anschluss of the sovereign state of Ukraine:
Taking into account the peculiarities of the conduct of hostilities by the enemy when planning the development of weapons and military equipment of the Ground Forces
What is the inaccuracy of modern methods of assessing the combat capability of the army and the chances of victory in the war?
The CIA and the US NSA made three mistakes in assessing the outcome of the war based on their methods of assessing the combat capability of the army:
The Afghan government's war against the Taliban.
An attempt by the Russian Federation to anschluss the sovereign state of Ukraine.
The combat capability of the Russian army was erroneously overestimated.
The BND (Germany), Mi-6 (Great Britain), French intelligence, and NATO estimates were also mistaken.
What are the methods of assessing the fighting capacity of the army and the chances of victory in the war?
The methods of assessing the combat capability of the army and the chances of winning the war, taught at West Point, or applied by NATO, etc., are somewhat formal. They take into account the caliber of guns and the number of armored vehicles, the degree of perfection of communications and fortifications, etc. Accurate quantitative characteristics are entered into the computer program in the appropriate sections. After pressing the button, they get the result.
What are the disadvantages of these computer programs?
For all these methods, one of the disadvantages is that everything called the human factor is not sufficiently accurately and objectively taken into account.
Is there a method to accurately and objectively assess the human factor?
Something like, for example, one of the well-known postulates of the stock and FOREX markets: the price takes everything into account. Including the human factor, it is the mood of buyers and sellers, the actions of large funds, the speeches and actions of politicians, etc.
There is such a method. The method is called the Scale of Emotional Tones, where the numerical value on the scale takes into account everything: the fighting capacity of people-military personnel, societies, the country as a whole for war, readiness and ability to conduct combat operations, competence, abilities, level of personal ethics, physical and psychological health, the percentage of alcoholics, drug addicts, criminals in society, the level of corruption, the number of traitors and recruited enemy spies, collaborators, prisoners, academics, Nobel laureates, totalitarian or democratic society, history, culture, willingness to help, creative potential of the nation, etc. That is, all that is called the human factor.
What does the Emotional Tone Scale look like?
These are the emotions of man, varying from the highest to the lowest and including (as we move down from life to death):
4.0 enthusiasm
3.5 joy liberalism
3.0 conservatism democracy
2.5 boredom
2.0 antagonism
1.5 anger fascism
1.1 hidden hostility to communism
1.0 fear
0.5 grief
0.1 apathy anarchy
How is this method used to compare the combat effectiveness of troops and assess the chances of winning a war?
For comparison, determine on the scale the numerical value of the emotional tone of the nations of the two countries that are at war with each other, according to the Scale of Emotional Tones and compare them. Usually the nation, country, or union of countries whose emotional tone is higher wins.
Example.
Complete defeat and unconditional surrender of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact 1.1 hidden hostility, in the Cold War against the USA and NATO 3.0 conservatism. 3.0 is greater than 1.1. The victory of the USA and NATO.
Why evaluate the emotional tone of the nation, and not the country's troops?
Because the army is an integral part of the people of the country, the nation.
The method of assessing the combat capability of the troops. The scale of emotional tones is used in a comprehensive assessment for an accurate assessment of the human factor. After all, there will always be a third party that will intervene in the war.
Example.
In the Middle Ages, the wars of Their Highnesses the Kings and Princes of Russia-Ukraine were almost classic. And already in the wars of Their Eminences the Hetmans of Russia-Ukraine, the third party has a decisive influence on the beginning, course and especially on the victory in the war.
Or one of the belligerents has a decisive numerical or technological advantage, etc.
What are the features of the assessment of an inter-racial war, for example, a war between yellow Russians against white Ukrainians, a war between Asian and European civilizations? Geographical location? Wars in the air, or on land, or in the ocean?
There are no features. In the Emotional Tone Scale method, the numerical value on the scale takes everything into account.
Example.
USA 3.0 conservatism against the Viet Cong 1.1 hidden hostility. The US is forced to withdraw its troops. 3.0 is greater than 1.1. But a comprehensive assessment shows that a third party intervened in the war: many collaborators and spies in the highest government structures of the USA, who were financed by the late USSR. Vietnam, the USSR and China won.
Example.
Second World War. International Socialist USSR, 1.1 hidden hostility, against the National Socialist Third Reich, 1.5 anger. 1.5 more than 1.1. But a comprehensive assessment shows that a third party intervened in the war: US 3.0 conservatism intervened. Lend-Lease, Allied assistance, etc. They also have numbers on their side. The anti-Hitler coalition won.
Example.
Talaban 1.5 anger against the government of Afghanistan 1.1 hidden hostility. 1.5 more than 1.1. Why 1.1? But a comprehensive assessment shows that a third party intervened in the war: the democratic government and a layer of the progressive, democratic society of Afghanistan began to feel uncomfortable. They are in the minority. The reason: active, religious accusations, propaganda, financed externally by a third party. There is also a number on the side of the Taliban. The Taliban and the third party won.
Example.
Anschluss attempts by the Russian Federation 1.1 hidden hostility in the military manner of the sovereign state of Ukraine 3.0 conservatism. Although 3.0 is more than 1.1, the number is on the side of the Russian Federation. Many collaborators and spies in the highest state structures of Ukraine, which were financed by the Russian Federation. But a comprehensive assessment shows that a third party intervened in the war: the USA and NATO 3.0 conservatism intervened. Lend-Lease, assistance of NATO and 52 countries, etc. They also have numbers on their side. The anti-Putin coalition is winning.
Conclusions:
a method of assessing the fighting ability of the army and the chances of winning the war. The scale of emotional tones makes it possible to correctly assess the human factor in war, whether it concerns the assessment of an inter-racial war, for example, the war of yellow Russians against white Ukrainians, or geographical location, or wars in the air, on land, in ocean, etc., the digital value on the scale takes everything into account;
the method of the Scale of Emotional Tones is used in a comprehensive assessment together with an assessment of quantitative or technological superiority, because nowadays, unlike in the Middle Ages, there will always be a third party that intervenes in the war;
the method of assessing the combat capability of the army and the chances of victory in the war. The scale of emotional tones makes it possible to correctly assess Iran, China and the USA in future wars;
for accurate and correct evaluation results using the Scale of Emotional Tones of the combat capability of the army and the chances of victory in the war, it is necessary to finance a program of study, testing and application.